Where Are You Going, Europe?

The German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz (right), greets the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, during the Security Conference in Munich. (Photo: EFE/EPA/Sven Hoppe)

This article was originally published by La Marea on 17 February 2025 and was translated by John Collins. 

And now what? It seems the new US administration has taken the initiative to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. This represents an important shift from the policy developed by Joe Biden, which consisted of promoting and fueling the conflict and trying to put Russia, and in the process Europe, on the ropes. 

The economic and geopolitical consequences of this shift are enormous. Focusing on what concerns the European Union (EU), it’s clear that from the outset, the Trump government intends to exclude it from the “core” of the negotiation which, not coincidentally, will be made official in Saudi Arabia. 

You never know where high politics may be brewing (at least I have no idea), but if we examine the reaction of Brussels and the EU governments, the step taken by the US has caught them off stride. The official reaction has been a mix of surprise (the most cautious) and indignation (the most daring). In both cases, it has been made clear that Europe must be represented at the negotiating table. 

As always, simply reacting to events. 

“It is very disturbing that the voice that is being most amplified is the one that calls for a substantial increase in military spending. Of course, this is also what Trump is demanding - up to five percent of GDP! - as are the US arms manufacturers…and also the European ones.”

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (which clearly must be rejected), Europe aligned itself with the US and NATO strategy of blowing up all existing bridges of dialogue with Putin’s government (which had been opened during the Gorbachev years). And once the invasion began, when there was still a possibility of opening a negotiation to put an end to the war within a few months, the door slammed as Europe closed ranks with the most militaristic position of NATO and the US. 

And in these three long years of war, Europe simply has not had its own voice - just maintain and reinforce arms deliveries to the Ukrainian government and reinforce sanctions against Russia. But an even louder voice was pushing for an increase in military spending, not only because this was increasingly demanded by the US, but also because it was understood to be one of the keys to the idea of “More Europe.” 

So we have seen in these years a substantial increase in military spending (modestly called “defense spending”). Were European institutions and governments tied hand and foot to this position? Not at all. An alternative path could have been opened if, instead of contributing to the militarization of the region, Europe has positioned itself clearly against the idea of Ukraine joining NATO and had put on the table possible alternatives for creating peace in the region. 

But the truth is that such a European voice has not existed, and the subordination to the “empire” has been total. It must be said as well that US companies have turned this theater of confrontation into a wonderful business (for example, regarding natural gas and arms supplies). 

The existence of such an imperial (imperialist) strategy by the US is clear: to change the rules of the game for the benefit of the great American power and, in the process, take advantage of the new geopolitical parameters (the rare earths of Ukraine, turning the Palestinian genocide into a business opportunity, seizing the enormous resources of the Arctic territories, taking absolute control over the Panama Canal…). A few examples from a long list. 

It is very disturbing that the voice that is being most amplified is the one that calls for a substantial increase in military spending. Of course, this is also what Trump is demanding - up to five percent of GDP! - as are the US arms manufacturers…and also the European ones. 

If the so-called “European project” is already failing in fundamental ways (substantially reducing inequality and confronting climate change), the increase in military spending is the last straw, because - let’s say it clearly - this spending tramples these objectives, turning them into grandiose but empty rhetoric. 

And the fascists, rubbing their hands! Because this is the fertile ground on which they gain influence, and it is already visible within “liberal Europe.”